2014: The Indian General Election In The Present Context
2014: The Indian General Election In The Present Context
~Aashay Sahay~
~Aashay Sahay~

The
2014 Lok Sabha election are going to be a momentous turning point for the
Republic of India either for the better or worse. There is no possibility of a
middle ground or in other words, a preservation of status quo. The vital signs
on this nation are deteriorating at an alarming rate and if the state of
governance remains as is, it will lead India into a future far darker than the
present scenario, with irreversible repercussions. This nation is in desperate
need of extensive overhaul that can break the shackles of political inertia and
drag the state out of its present disrepair. Populist policies deployed by the
government over the last decade have been an accessory to vote bank
manipulation and have left a significant dent on the economy. Systematic utilization of the state’s
functions and organs for the vested interests of the ruling class isn’t a
recent phenomenon, but the brazenness displayed by this lot in the face of complete
exposure at the hands of an empowered media is astounding.
The
attitude of the Uttar Pradesh government is exhibited by its role in IAS
officer Durga Shakti Nagpal’s suspension and its reaction in the aftermath of
the public outrage that followed. Despite the abundance of evidence indicating
the true motives behind her suspension, the posse of politicians at the helm of
this affair have flouted their power with impunity. There is a sense of
invincibility among these leaders as they seem to have conviction in their
ability to remain in business by means of backdoor deals for political support,
hoodwinking the people into voting on fabricated issues or outright buying
their votes. In 2003, several weapons including AK 47s were recovered by the
police from the house of Raghuraj Pratap Singh. In 2007, Police Inspector RS
Pandey mysteriously died in a car accident on his way to Allahabad High court.
RS Pandey had conducted raids at the house of Raguraj Pratap Singh, against
whom he was investigating the POTA case and had since complained of repeated
death threats from him. On 3rd March 2013, Deputy Superintendant of
Police, Zia Ul Haque was killed during a clash in Kunda. The officer’s wife
claimed Raghuraj Pratap Singh’s involvement in her husband’s death. On the 1st
of August 201, he was given a clean chit by the CBI in the Zia Ul Haque murder
case. Raghuraj Pratap Singh, a five time MLA from Kunda is also known as Raja
Bhaiya. When individuals like him can roam the streets freely while police
officers lie in their graves or get suspended for doing their job, despite the
efforts of the Media and several members of the society, one can only imagine
the state of an average citizen crushed under the weight of injustice, poverty
and lack of redressal.
Over
twenty percent of India’s population comprises of the youth. While India is in
a position to reap the demographic dividend, it has miserably failed to do just
that. This leaves us with a burgeoning youth populace with a large proportion
of them engaged in unproductive activity. What critically distinguished the
youth of today from that of the past decades is the increasing access to
information and urban exposure. The ambition and thereby the frustration as a
lack of its fulfilment was limited in the youth of the previous generations as
their reference frame for gauging their wants and thereby the success in
achieving it was limited to their immediate surroundings for the most part. The
other factor that helped curbing their horizons was a dominant social structure
wherein people came to terms with the strata they were born into and thereby
looked for contentment within it. Those born poor rarely managed to get
educated and almost never had access to the media. This made them susceptible
to the prevalent indoctrination that commanded them to serve within the family
profession. Such a construct enabled the wealthy to hold their positions with
limited threat of losing their wealth to somebody more capable than them that
was from a financially weaker segment of the society and it empowered the
political class to lord over the general populace while being minimally
susceptible to scrutiny. The lack of a strong independent media further
facilitated their cause.
The
youth of today is aware of the opportunities that exist, aware of their right
to claim it and aware that they are being denied and oppressed. They are
unwilling to come to terms with it and reconcile with their situation. A large
chunk of the youth is sub optimally employed or unemployed and this in
conjugation with the above factors is leading to widespread frustration and
resentment. The economist in an article published in the month of May this
year, talks about a firm by the name Frontline that is one of India’s largest
private employers. It employs over 86,000 people who are mostly unskilled
persons serving as security guards at various installations such as ATM
machines. Rather than being an isolated case, this is symptomatic of the
present scenario where hoards of Indians spend their lives engaged in work that
has extremely low scope for cerebral involvement. These members of the society
sit about day after day watching people roll by in vehicles, men and women
coming out of clubs, extravagant celebrations and other such symbols of
everything they want to posses but can’t. The abundance of time to ponder on
such matters leads to the birth of resentment, which in the absence of
channelization, gets vented on the obscured of things. A Wall Street Journal
report even links the increase in sexual harassment to this situation.
In
the past decade, there have been several flash points across the nation with
the most recent being over the gang rape in Delhi which led to a massive agitation
in the heart of city. Disenchanted youth in the impoverished rural areas are
taking to naxalism. Should the state of affairs in this nation continue to
degenerate at the present rate, the populace is bound to reach a tipping point
on the tolerance scale. It would be ideal if this tipping point is reflected
through the democratic process, but if the masses are disillusioned with the
very system that is supposed to alleviate them from this situation and hold it
responsible for it; they may be likely to take other recourses with grim
repercussions.
The
protests that followed the brutal gang rape of a young woman in Delhi on 16th
December 2012 weren’t merely an outrage against the incident but rather a
larger cry of despair against the failure of the government to perform its duty.
I was present at India Gate when the police and other special forces cracked
down on the peaceful protesters, an act that was widely criticised. At one
point, while trying to escape the lathi charge, I remember turning around and
spotting a policeman assaulting a stranded woman. The next thing I noticed was
that some of the youth that was trying to get out of the situation had seen
this too. They stopped in their tracks, outraged at what they had just seen and
took to hurling bricks and stones in the direction of the aggressor. Now
consider the following situation. It wouldn’t be a stretch to imagine a mass
turnout akin to the December protests, as a result of the unearthing of another
major corruption scandal, something which seems to be constantly looming on the
horizon. All it would take is for one cop to lose his cool, fire his weapon and
subsequently the casualty of one individual among the crowd to send people over
the edge. A riotous situation would be
likely to ensue with severe casualties. An incident such as this can be the
flash point to send the rest of India over the tipping point and trigger a
nationwide uprising against a corrupt, malfunctioning and oppressive system. It
took one self-immolation to change the face of the Arab world and set in motion
the Arab spring. It might take one such incident to cause the same in India.
The economic reality certainly supports this argument.
The
2014 general elections are set to be a testament to the general sense of
frustration among the people with regard to both their present personal and
national situations. Across various states, the people have shown a propensity
to give clear mandates to a single party or alliance. The people of UP gave BSP
a majority in the legislative assembly and upon its failure to the SP.
Similarly Karnataka gave BJP a clear mandate after years of dysfunctional
alliances and then expressed its disappointment with the party’s tenure by
giving a clear mandate to Congress this year. The conclusion is evident and
straight forward, the people are seeking to get rid of messy coalitions and
vote in the party that has a clear agenda and shows ability to deliver on it. The
general elections are likely to reflect this mood provided the BJP can present
an unambiguous front to the masses. Given the way things are panning out at the
moment, the party seems to be moving in the right direction. Should the BJP
declare Modi the Prime Ministerial candidate in due time and thereafter engage
in a protracted campaign to spread the development agenda and its virtues to
the grass root level across India in the run up to the elections, it will be
set for an impressive performance. However, if there were to be a turn in
events leading to a lack of clarity on behalf of BJP, given the fact that under
almost every fathomable scenario the congress will be taking a major drubbing; there
can be two possible outcomes. Either BJP will form some sort of a mega alliance
to form the magic number or the next government will be formed by a motley crew
of regional parties, backed by one of the two national parties. The former will
produce yet another term of minimally functional governance. Consequences of
the latter arrangement on the future of this nation are anyone’s guess. Even
within the regional satraps, certain luminaries like Mayawati, Mulayam Singh and
Mamata among some others that are poised to be king makers, might end up with a
shot at the Prime Ministerial seat. This would be a nightmarish situation for
the entire nation to say the least. Jaya Lalitha and Nitish Kumar are
relatively better off, but with limited seats attributed to their party they
will lack teeth should they manage to become the Prime Minster and chose to do
something tangible.
All
things considered, if one were to evaluate the chips as they lie at this
moment; Narendra Modi is headed for the big job.
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